Overcoming Today’s Odds: Creating Jobs in the Developing World - Opening Remarks by President Tharman Shanmugaratnam at the World Bank Group Conference at Banca d’Italia in Rome, Italy on 4 March 2026

Banca d’Italia Governor Fabio Panetta,

Minister of Economy and Finance, Italy Giancarlo Giorgetti,

World Bank President Ajay Banga,

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde

Fellow members of the WBG High Level Advisory Council on Jobs,

Ladies and Gentlemen

First, let me just say that the odds on us succeeding in large-scale job creation in the developing world are now steep. Overcoming these odds is going to require a step change in public policy, in development finance, and in public-private-civil society collaboration.

The reason for these daunting odds is the step change in the global environment itself. We are familiar with that. There is a step change in the global trading environment - and I'm referring not so much to tariffs but the fact that the rules and basic norms governing the global trading system have been dealt a body blow. That's the more profound change in the system. The rules and norms that were build up over decades – even if never perfect, not always consistently enforced – held world trade together. They offered countries large and small a broadly fair and predictable framework within which they could trade with each other, and make the most of their comparative advantages. There has now been a step change in the system.

A second step change is technology. It’s too early to say whether AI will displace more jobs than it augments and the new jobs that it ushers. It's too early to say, particularly in the developed world. But the odds are not in favour of many in the developing world – in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and some other parts of the developing world – because their current advantage tends to be in more routine tasks that AI, advanced robotics and other automation technologies will increasingly take over.

We're seeing an acceleration of this disruptive technological force, and it will apply not just to routine white-collar jobs, but also to factory jobs that produce relatively simple consumer goods.

A further step change is in Africa’s demographics – 1.2 billion young people entering the workforce within the next decade, with Africa accounting for a major share.

In order to address this fundamentally new environment, we therefore need a step change in the way we go about development too.

We must succeed in creating jobs in Africa. It will matter critically for Africa, but it will also matter for peace, for global health, to contain forced migration, and to bend the arc of human well-being globally. Creating jobs for those 1.2 billion young people is global common good. It's not just about Africa.

I believe we can succeed in Africa, even against the odds, but it's going to require the bolder shifts in domestic policies, in development finance and technical assistance, and in creating regional and cross-regional trade agreements that can help grow markets. I will highlight four factors, each within reach.

First, we have to move more boldly and with greater urgency to strengthen schooling. We need to invest in it. Governments will have to raise some revenue for the purpose. But the investment, while critical, is not the most expensive that countries have to make.

The World Bank, African Development Bank and others in the development community can be helpful in this effort to up standards, keep girls in school, and build transition after school to skills-based training and skills-based employment. It's been done in some other parts of the world, and is not unique to any culture or any geography. It can be done.

Second, we've got to invest much more boldly in broadband and electricity. Those are the two biggest gaps in Africa. The World Bank and others are onto this too. Treat this as a matter of urgency.

Third, we've got to invest in the logistics needed to make the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) a reality. Looking at it from a distance, I will say the AfCFTA has been too slow off the mark. It is critical to get this done, in a world where global markets are no longer as open as they used to be. Africa does not face as propitious an environment as East Asia did 50 years ago.

We have got to make the most of the scale that the African continent potentially offers. A growing lower-middle and middle-class will be a huge potential market. But it requires connectivity and cross-border enterprises.

Fourth, we’ve got to focus especially on growing the sectors with large job-creating potential.

In the energy sector, as the International Energy Association points out, a million dollars spent in renewable energy creates three times as many jobs as then same sum spent in fossil fuel generation.

And a million dollars spent in the agri-food sector creates many more jobs than in manufacturing and services. It doesn't mean we neglect manufacturing, or services like tourism and healthcare which each have job-creating potential too. But there is an especially large potential for jobs creation in the transition towards clean energy, and the agri-food sector.

• Africa has advantages because it does have the sun, many parts of Africa have wind, and hydro.
  

• Africa also has 70 per cent of the world's available arable land. And food demand will grow in the coming decades. In Africa itself, food consumption will grow because of population growth, urbanisation, and people rising from being poor to low-middle income, and to become middle income.

But large-scale job creation will require looking at the whole chain of agri-food activities, not just in the farm but upstream and downstream. That’s a largely untapped potential.

• In fact, 70 per cent of jobs in agriculture in Africa are still in the farm itself, and in relatively low-productivity activity. If we look at the Americas, if we look at Europe, it's about 30 to 40 per cent. The rest of the jobs are upstream – in developing seeds and fertilisers, machinery and all the inputs required for precision irrigation and precision agriculture, and in micro-finance for small farmers; and downstream – in aggregating farm produce, processing it, arranging for efficient logistics including cold chains for horticulture, and in marketing.
  

• Those are good jobs up and down the chain. And developing that whole chain also raises productivity and incomes for the primary farmers themselves. It’s a huge opportunity for jobs in Africa.

We can succeed if we make these step changes – in public policy, in mobilising private finance as the World Bank is now very seriously embarked on, and in the way we organise ourselves within Africa and around the world, recognising that creating jobs for the huge wave of young people that is coming is a global common good. If we fail, we will all pay for it.

I'm glad that this initiative has been launched by Italy’s Mattei Plan and the World Bank Group, with the active support of Banca d’Italia. There’s room for optimism if we make these step changes, even with the odds on success are now much steeper than before.